Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 28, 2015, 14:13 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil drifted 57 cents as traders adjusted after yesterday’s market rocket. On Thursday crude oil soared over 10%. Oil

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil drifted 57 cents as traders adjusted after yesterday’s market rocket. On Thursday crude oil soared over 10%. Oil is trading at 41.99. Brent Oil dipped 64 points to 46.92. Crude oil has gotten pounded over the past week, dropping to below $40 a barrel for the first time in more than six years. And even though prices are low and falling, production in the Bakken shale play in North Dakota and Montana and in the Eagle Ford play in south Texas continues to rise. According Bentek, July production in the Eagle Ford totaled 1.6 million barrels a day, up about 10,000 barrels a day compared with June and about 250,000 barrels a day higher than in July 2014. In North Dakota, Bakken production rose by about 500 barrels a day to 1.2 million barrels, up about 90,000 barrels a day compared with July 2014.

For the past week, crude imports averaged 7.2 million barrels a day, down by 839,000 barrels a day compared with the previous week. Refineries were running at 94.5% of capacity, with daily input of about 16.7 million barrels, about 117,000 barrels a day below the previous week’s average. BP’s Whiting, Ind., refinery restarted its repaired distillation tower earlier this week, and refining throughput and utilization should show some gains in next week’s report.

Oil slid Friday at the end of a tumultuous week, during which prices hit 6.5-year lows on fears over China’s slowing but then rebounded on strong US economic growth data.

Both contracts had soared by about 10 percent on Thursday after news the US economy — the world’s biggest followed by number two China — grew at a better-than-expected annual rate of 3.7 percent in the second quarter.

“Yesterday’s rebound (in oil prices) does of course follow in the wake of the huge, broad-based sell-off in all markets at the start of the week,” said SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.

“When better than expected US GDP data hit the news… yesterday, the equity recovery got additional traction upwards,” he added.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)	-0.2%	1.3%	-2.0%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)	0.6%	2.2%	-3.0%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)	1.21	1.19	1.19
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)	0.0%	-0.2%	0.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)	1.6%	1.1%	0.9%
CHF	GDP (YoY) (Q2)	1.2%	0.9%	1.2%
CHF	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%
EUR	Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug)	-0.4%	-0.1%	0.1%
EUR	Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug)	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.0%
GBP	Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2)	2.9%	1.7%	2.0%
GBP	GDP (YoY) (Q2)	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
GBP	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Aug)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.2%
USD	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.3%	1.3%
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
USD	Goods Trade Balance (Jul)	-59.12B		-62.26B
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Jul)	-5.9%	-4.0%	0.2%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)			-4.1%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)			1.1%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
AUD	Company Gross Operating Profits			0.2%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)			0.4%
CHF	KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)			99.8
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Aug)		0.2%	0.2%
CAD	Current Account (Q2)			-17.5B
USD	Chicago PMI (Aug)		54.5	54.7