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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 – Forecast

Barry Norman

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil drifted 57 cents as traders adjusted after yesterday’s market rocket. On Thursday crude oil soared over 10%. Oil is trading at 41.99. Brent Oil dipped 64 points to 46.92. Crude oil has gotten pounded over the past week, dropping to below $40 a barrel for the first time in more than six years. And even though prices are low and falling, production in the Bakken shale play in North Dakota and Montana and in the Eagle Ford play in south Texas continues to rise. According Bentek, July production in the Eagle Ford totaled 1.6 million barrels a day, up about 10,000 barrels a day compared with June and about 250,000 barrels a day higher than in July 2014. In North Dakota, Bakken production rose by about 500 barrels a day to 1.2 million barrels, up about 90,000 barrels a day compared with July 2014.

For the past week, crude imports averaged 7.2 million barrels a day, down by 839,000 barrels a day compared with the previous week. Refineries were running at 94.5% of capacity, with daily input of about 16.7 million barrels, about 117,000 barrels a day below the previous week’s average. BP’s Whiting, Ind., refinery restarted its repaired distillation tower earlier this week, and refining throughput and utilization should show some gains in next week’s report.

Oil slid Friday at the end of a tumultuous week, during which prices hit 6.5-year lows on fears over China’s slowing but then rebounded on strong US economic growth data.

Both contracts had soared by about 10 percent on Thursday after news the US economy — the world’s biggest followed by number two China — grew at a better-than-expected annual rate of 3.7 percent in the second quarter.

“Yesterday’s rebound (in oil prices) does of course follow in the wake of the huge, broad-based sell-off in all markets at the start of the week,” said SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.

“When better than expected US GDP data hit the news… yesterday, the equity recovery got additional traction upwards,” he added.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)

-0.2%

1.3%

-2.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.6%

2.2%

-3.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)

1.21

1.19

1.19

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

 

 

  CHF

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)

1.2%

0.9%

1.2%

   

  CHF

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 

2.9%

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)  

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Aug)  

0.0%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Goods Trade Balance (Jul)

-59.12B

 

-62.26B

 

 

  USD

 

Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

   

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Jul)

-5.9%

-4.0%

0.2%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-4.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  CHF

 

KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)

 

 

99.8

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Current Account (Q2)

 

 

-17.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Aug)

 

54.5

54.7

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

 

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