Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Nov 11, 2015, 12:25 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil continued to decline after the API weekly report showed a surge in inventory pushing prices down to 43.74. Brent

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 12, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to decline after the API weekly report showed a surge in inventory pushing prices down to 43.74. Brent Oil declined alongside WTI giving up 23 cents to 47.87. The official EIA inventory report has been delayed until Thursday due to the Veterans Day holiday in the US. US crude stocks jumped by 6.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 6 to 486.1 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed late on Tuesday, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 1 million barrels.

On the demand side, confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell in November for a third straight month to levels unseen in more than two years, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, reflecting fears that a China-led slowdown in overseas demand may have pushed Asia’s second-biggest economy into recession.

In China, factory output grew slower than expected at an annual 5.6 per cent in October, data showed on Wednesday, slightly below analyst forecasts of 5.8 per cent and down from 5.7 per cent in September. China’s oil demand rose 0.9 per cent in October from a year earlier to 10.14 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Reuters’ calculations based on preliminary government data, with many analysts expecting a further slowdown.

Looking ahead, the oil market expects OPEC to favor continuing its policy of pumping oil to retain market share at its next meeting on Dec. 4.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	6.300M	0.500M	2.800M
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	3.9%		4.2%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)	10.2%	10.2%	10.3%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)	5.6%	5.8%	5.7%
GBP	BoE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)	3.0%	3.2%	3.0%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Oct)	3.3K	1.5K	0.5K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Sep)	5.3%	5.4%	5.4%
EUR	ECB President Draghi Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)			55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)		45%	44%
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)		6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.0%	0.0%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		270K	276K
USD	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)		5.370M	5.370M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		0.752M	2.847M
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Oct)		-130.0B	91.0B