Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 19, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 56 cents to 41.24 while Brent Oil rose 79 cents to 44.36 as airstrikes against ISIS destroy some of the illegal production.  Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed that last week crude stockpiles in the US declined by 482,000 barrels partly due to more refinery runs.

Investors are watching for official inventory data to be released by the US Government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). According to analysts, the crude inventory is expected to rise by 1.9 million barrels during the In the week ended November 13^th.

Prices are expected to remain weak for the rest of 2015 and into 2016 as production continues to surpass demand even due to slight gains on Wednesday.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said in its 2016 outlook: “The oversupply and surpluses are likely to continue well into next year, exerting continued downward pressure on prices.”

According to International Energy Agency predictions, oil prices could fluctuate around the $50 a barrel mark until the end of 2020 if market conditions remain as they are. This is due to a slowdown in the world economy and the weak global demand associated with it, and the unwillingness of oil-producing countries to cut production to maintain their positions in the market and increasing reserves of black gold. At the end of September, reserves in developed countries reached the impressive 3 billion barrel milestone; meanwhile, the IEA predicts a slowdown in global demand growth from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2015 to 1.2 million in 2016.

Barclays has predicted the oil price is likely to rise to $50 by the end of 2015 and increase to $60 in 2016. The bank’s corporate banking team said an increase would be spurred by sustained doubling of growth in global demand of up to four million barrels per day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus