Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gave up 65 cents after its rally last week as traders review global demand and book profits. Mixed manufacturing data from China also weighs on prices. Brent Oil fell 62 cents to 48.95. Oil prices declined for the first time in four days as a measure of manufacturing activity signaled contraction for a third straight month in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer.

Futures retreated as much as 0.9 per cent in New York after advancing 4.5 per cent last week. China’s official purchasing managers index remained at 49.8 in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday (Nov 1), compared with an estimate of 50, the line between expansion and contraction. Iran will officially inform other OPEC members of its plans to raise crude production at the group’s Dec 4 meeting, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in an interview with the Mehr news agency.

Oil failed to sustain a rally above US$50 a barrel in October amid signs a global glut will be prolonged as rising US stockpiles keep supplies more than 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to pump crude at a faster pace than the limit the group has set for itself, with production near the highest level since 2008. China stepped up monetary easing with its sixth interest-rate cut in a year last month amid a slowing economy.

Monday’s falls came after gains made last week following a further decline in the U.S. oil rig count which indicated that domestic crude production could drop in coming months.

But in Asia, the possibility of slowing demand in China dominated trade on Monday, with growth faltering in the world’s No.2 economy.

While China has so far avoided a hard landing, activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fueling fears the economy may still be losing momentum in the fourth quarter despite a raft of stimulus measures.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction