Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

Crude Oil prices fell close to $1 as the greenback rallied and global demand tumbled. Traders are focusing on next week’s OPEC meeting even though the Saudi’s seem determined to keep production quotas high. Brent Oil fell 38 cents to 45.09. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. says the number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the US this week declined by 13 to 744. Baker Hughes issued the report two days earlier than usual due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday. The current crude oil rig count is 65% lower than last year’s 1,572. Since the end of the summer, drillers have cut 111 oil rigs.

Crude oil futures edged higher Wednesday as USA producers continued to shut down rigs amid tight margins. The Permian basin was this week’s biggest loser with drillers idling five oil-directed rigs; the Mississippian, however, saw the addition of three rigs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that oil inventories rose by 1 million barrels per day to a total of 488.2 million barrels in commercial inventories, an at least 80-year seasonal high.  The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly petroleum status report on November 25, 2015. Government data reported that US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1 million bbls for the week ending November 20, 2015. Likewise, the API reported that crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.6 MMbbls for the same period. Reuter’s surveys projected that crude oil stockpiles could rise by 1.2 MMbbls for the same period. The less-than-expected inventory increase supported crude oil prices.

Prices have shorted up more than 7% for the week due to geopolitical tensions between Russia and Syria. The consensus of supply disruptions led to the crude oil rally. The crude oil market has been under long-term oversupply concerns, so many traders and hedge funds are net short on the oil market.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 30, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction