Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

By:

Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil recovered 41 cents to trade at 91.57 but remains weak ahead of today’s EIA inventory report which is expected to

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil recovered 41 cents to trade at 91.57 but remains weak ahead of today’s EIA inventory report which is expected to show a climb in supplies. Brent Oil gained 20 points to trade at 94.87 with the spread narrowing to $3.30. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday following sharp falls the day before, with a decline in US consumer confidence and tepid data from China dampening buying sentiment.

WTI plummeted $3.41 a barrel and Brent tumbled $2.53 Tuesday owing to a supply glut and a pick-up in the dollar, which is sitting at a six-year high against the yen and a two-year high against the euro.

After rising for four months, the Conference Board index – a key barometer of US consumer confidence – fell to 86.0 in September from 93.4 in August on mounting concerns about the jobs market.

Consumer spending is a key growth driver in the world’s biggest economy and any dip in the in the index indicates weak demand. In China official data showed manufacturing activity stalled in September as leaders struggle to address a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 51.5 in September, unchanged from the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

On Tuesday HSBC said its September PMI came in at 50.2, the same as August but lower than a preliminary reading of 50.5. The bank’s July figure was 51.7.

Traders are closely monitoring today’s EIA data release.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	AIG Manufacturing Index	46.5		47.3
JPY	Tankan Large Mfg	13	10	12
JPY	Tankan Non-Mfg	13	17	19
CNY	Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	51.1	51.0	51.1
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%
IDR	Core Inflation (YoY) (Sep)	4.04%	4.33%	4.47%
EUR	Spanish Mfg. PMI (Sep)	52.6	52.2	52.8
CHF	SVME PMI (Sep)	50.4	52.0	52.9
EUR	Italian Mfg. PMI (Sep)	50.7	49.5	49.8
EUR	French Mfg. PMI	48.8	48.8	48.8
EUR	German Mfg. PMI (Sep)	49.9	50.3	50.3
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	50.3	50.5	50.5
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	51.6	52.5	52.2
USD	ADP Nonfarm		210K	204K
USD	ISM Manufacturing		57.5	58.1
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		58.5	59.0

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	HIA New Home Sales			-5.7%
AUD	Building Approvals		1.0%	2.5%
AUD	Trade Balance		-0.700B	1.359B
GBP	Construction PMI		63.5	64.0
EUR	Interest Rate Decision		0.05%	0.05%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		297K	293K
USD	Factory Orders (MoM)		-9.3%	10.5%