Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil tumbled to a 2 year low to trade at 80.54 while Brent Oil added 11 cents to trade at 84.82. Yesterday crude oil

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil tumbled to a 2 year low to trade at 80.54 while Brent Oil added 11 cents to trade at 84.82. Yesterday crude oil plunged by over 2.5 percent following the US inventories report from the Department of Energy. The government agency revealed a jump in total crude stockpiles by 7.11 million barrels for the week, well-above the consensus forecast. Moreover, refinery utilization slipped to its weakest since March and supplies at Cushing jumped by their highest since July.

Looking ahead, US preliminary manufacturing survey figures are set to cross the wires. Data from the world’s largest crude consumer has been relatively positive of-late. Yet another strong economic reading may do little to offset lingering supply glut concerns, which stand to depress WTI.

The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, a key gauge of activity in the manufacturing sector, rose to 50.4 in October, compared with a final reading of 50.2 in September. This was the third positive data point from China this week, after the GDP and industrial production numbers that pointed to stabilizing economic growth in the world’s No. 2 economy. But oil prices, which are generally sensitive to Chinese economic data due to the country’s high oil consumption levels, failed to post any major gains.

Oil had slumped sharply, with Nymex West Texas Intermediate crude settling at its lowest since June 2012, and Brent posting its third lowest settlement this year on a larger-than-expected build-up in U.S. oil inventories.

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Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%
AUD	Business Confidence	6		6
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI	50.4	50.3	50.2
EUR	French Mfg. PMI	47.3	48.5	48.8
EUR	French Services PMI	48.1	48.2	48.4
EUR	German Mfg. PMI	51.8	49.5	49.9
EUR	German Services PMI	54.8	55.0	55.7
EUR	Manufacturing PMI	50.7	49.9	50.3
EUR	Services PMI (Oct)	52.4	52.0	52.4
GBP	Mortgage Approvals	39.3K	41.5K	41.4K
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.3%
GBP	Core Retail Sales (YoY)	3.1%	3.4%	4.4%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.4%
GBP	Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)	2.7%	2.8%	3.7%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends		-4	-4
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		282K	264K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Trade Balance (MoM)		-700M	-472M
NZD	Trade Balance (YoY)		1,510M	2,020M
GBP	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.7%	0.9%
GBP	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		3.0%	3.2%
USD	New Home Sales (Sep)		470K	504K
USD	New Home Sales (MoM)		-5.8%	18.0%