Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 28, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil gained 14 cents as traders bought up the cheap commodity which remains well under priced at 81.15 while Brent Oil

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained 14 cents as traders bought up the cheap commodity which remains well under priced at 81.15 while Brent Oil eased 17 cents after Goldman cut its forecast for the product. Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent in London after closing down 0.8 percent on Oct. 24. Accelerating output from producers outside North America including Brazil and Azerbaijan will result in an oversupply in 2015, Goldman Sachs said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, scheduled to meet in Vienna next month, should let the market balance itself instead of trying to intervene, according to Hasan Qabazard, a former head of the group’s research division.

Oil has collapsed into a bear market amid rising global supplies as leading OPEC members resisted calls to cut production. The U.S. is pumping at the fastest pace in almost three decades while Russia’s output has climbed to near a post-Soviet record.

Brent will trade at an average of $85 a barrel in the first quarter, down from a previous projection of $100, Goldman analysts including Jeffrey Currie in New York said in a report. WTI will sell for $75, compared with an earlier estimate of $90, according to the bank. Energy players jumped back into oil too quickly, boosting bullish bets amid a rebound last week, only to then watch surging U.S. crude supplies push prices right back down to a two-year low.

U.S. oil inventories increased 7.11 million barrels in the seven days ended Oct. 17 to 377.7 million, the Energy Information Administration said Oct. 22. Supply has grown by about 21 million in three weeks.

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Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

	Cur.		Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	USD		Pending Home Sales		0.5%	-1.0%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)		0.6%	1.2%
USD	Core Durable Goods		0.5%	0.4%
USD	Durable Goods Orders		0.6%	-18.4%
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite		5.8%	6.7%
USD	Consumer Confidence		87.0	86.0