Crude & Brent Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil ended the week on a low note at 81.30 down by 79 cents on Friday, while Brent Oil gave up 60 cents on Friday to end at 86.23. Global oil futures have posted a fifth weekly loss as concerns about high global supply continued to weigh on prices.

Prices have tumbled for months as supply growth has outpaced demand. Market participants are waiting to see whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and specifically Saudi Arabia, will cut production to raise prices. OPEC’s next meeting is November 27. Saudi Arabia sold less crude domestically and for export in September, but its production increased, an industry official familiar with the matter said on Thursday. According to reports Saudi Arabia shipped 9.36 million barrels a day last month, down 328,000 barrels a day from August. However, Saudi Arabia’s oil production was up slightly last month, at 9.70 million barrels a day.

OPEC had earlier indicated the cartel will maintain its output without any cut in production, with some member countries preferring to slash prices in order to gain share of the market.

Last week, US oil prices had tumbled to the lowest level in more than 2 years, amid concerns over excess supply globally, with OPEC member countries reportedly unwilling to cut crude production.

Investors also were closely watching also the impact of the spreading Ebola virus outbreak on global economies. ‘Fresh concern over Ebola is really the last thing we like to see right now, which may have an overhang effect on oil demand,’ said Desmond Chua, market analyst at CMC Markets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest:  110.55 on Mar 01, 2012

Average: 93.60 over this period

Lowest: 74.95 on Oct 04, 2011

 

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

 

Major Economic Events for the week of October 27-31st

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction