The central bank actions of cutting rates will continue to be a driver of oil prices, as an explosion of economic activity is trying to be front run at the moment. Furthermore, the Middle East is going to have its say as well.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market pulled back just a bit during the trading session here on Monday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. This is a market that I think is going to continue to be somewhat choppy in this region as we are between the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA indicators.
Quite often, this signals a market that is in flux and trying to sort out where it’s going to go next. If we were to turn around and break down below the 50-day EMA, it could open up a move down to the $71.50 level. On the other hand, if we can break above the 200-day EMA, then the market could go looking to the $80 level above. The $80 level, of course, is a large round figure that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, so anything above there probably becomes more buy and hold.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Brent, same situation, we’re between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators. If we can clear $83.50, I think this is a market that goes much higher. Also, I do believe that we’re in the midst of forming some type of inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Why would oil suddenly take off? Well, the first thing I can think of is that the Middle East is certainly a place that has its own issues right now and that could disrupt supply. Furthermore, central banks around the world cutting rates could have a major negative effect on the demand for crude oil as economic conditions warrant more energy and therefore, more demand for crude oil.
After all, crude oil is the life’s blood of the economy and therefore I think you have to pay close attention to it because it is probably trying to tell us that economic activity could really take off. That’s especially true when inflation takes off. Oil tends to be one of the most sensitive markets rising right along with it. I prefer buying on dips.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.