Crude Oil forecast for the week of August 17, 2015, Technical Analysis
Light Sweet Crude
The light sweet crude market went back and forth during the course the week, and at one point in time even tested the $45.50 level. However, we broke down below the $42 level and tested or the dollars as well. Ultimately, we ended up forming a fairly neutral candle with a slightly negative bias. This is a pretty straightforward trade as far as we are concerned, we will either break the top of the candle from the previous weekend head towards the $50 level, or we will break down below the bottom of the candle and really fall apart. At this point in time we will trade with whichever direction we end up, but recognize that any upward trade would of course be counter trend. Ultimately, this is a very strong downtrend but sooner or later value have to enter the picture.
The Brent market initially rallied during the course the week but found enough resistance near the $52 level to turn things back around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is very negative, and if we can break down below the bottom of that, this market should continue dropping quite a bit. With this, we believe that the market has a massive amount of bearish pressure on it, but if we can break above the top of the shooting star, that would be very bullish sign and have us buying this contract for the meantime. We recognize there will be a lot of volatility anyways, so this point in time we are simply going to trade the market in whichever correction we break out of the range from this previous week. If we go higher though, we recognize $58 or so will probably be about as high as is market can go in the meantime. As far as falling is concerned, we don’t really know where the bottom is quite yet but we have certainly have to start thinking about potential value at these very low levels. However, keep in mind that trying to pick the bottom of the market is extraordinarily dangerous.