Crude Oil forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market had a very volatile week as we went back and forth, testing the $44 level above for resistance. We did in fact find it there, so by the time we close for the week we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star sitting at the very bottom of the downtrend is a very negative sign indeed, and suggests that the matter what happens, the sellers are going to be involved. The $40 level just below is massively supportive, so if we can break down below there, we feel that this market will continue to drift much lower.

The strengthening US dollar of course is doing this market no favors, as the commodity is priced in those very US dollars. It will take less US dollars to buy a barrel of oil, so that translates into lower prices obviously. We have no interest in buying, and believe that it’s only a matter time before we break apart.

Brent

The Brent market went back and forth as well, forming resistance at the $47 level. We ended up forming a shooting star that was preceded by a bit of a hammer, so the Brent market may be struggling a bit, but we think it’s only a matter time before he break to a fresh, new low. At this point in time, the market would then reach down to the $40 handle given that move. We have no interest in buying this market, and believe that the only thing you can do is sell. The $48 level above is massively resistive, so we would be surprised the market rose above there. As far as buying is concerned, quite frankly we would have to get above the $56 handle which is something that we won’t be seeing anytime soon. Keep in mind that the Brent market is very susceptible to what happens in the European Union, so it also has those headwinds that it will have to deal with in order to change the attitude.