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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 12, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil is trading at 86.65 adding a few pips in a lackluster day of trading. Crude oil turned positive on expectations of
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil is trading at 86.65 adding a few pips in a lackluster day of trading. Crude oil turned positive on expectations of fresh stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve to perk up the struggling US economy, and on the eve of a key OPEC output decision, analysts said. OPEC is meeting to set production quota but are expected to hold at current levels, even though they continue to pump way over quota.
The US central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce new measures to stimulate the economy at the end of a two-day meeting that starts late Tuesday.
Stubborn high unemployment in the world’s largest economy and oil consumer as well as the looming fiscal cliff, give the FOMC every reason to expand its stimulus efforts. Traders are keeping an eye on what the Fed will do as the end approaches of its “Operation Twist” program, under which it has sold short-term debt to buy longer-term debt. Continued global tensions in Egypt and Syria help support prices.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 11, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
Dec. 11 |
|
GBP |
|
|
RICS House Price Balance |
-9% |
-7% |
-7% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
NAB Business Confidence |
-9 |
-1 |
|||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
||
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Trade Balance |
-19.3B |
-19.1B |
20.9B |
||
|
|
|
ZAR |
|
|
South African Retail Sales (YoY) |
1.00% |
4.00% |
4.70% |
||
|
|
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.2% |
5.4% |
6.0% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
6.9 |
-12.0 |
-15.7 |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
7.6 |
0.1 |
-2.6 |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.2B |
-1.0B |
-1.0B |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-42.2B |
-42.6B |
-40.3B |
WEEKLY
-
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 12 |
07:00 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.9% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
7.0K |
10.1K |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
-147.5B |
-120.0B |
|
|
Dec. 13 |
08:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-16 |
-21 |
|
|
Dec. 14 |
07:58 |
EUR |
45.0 |
44.5 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
47.2 |
46.8 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
|
1.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 12 10:10 Italy
Dec 12 10:10 Sweden
Dec 12 10:30 Swiss
Dec 12 16:30 US
Dec 13 01:30 Japan
Dec 13 09:30 Spain
Dec 13 10:10 Italy
Dec 13 10:30 UK
Dec 13 16:00 US
Dec 13 18:00 US
Dec 14 11:00 Belgium
Dec 14 15:30 UK
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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