Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added a few pips on the back of strong manufacturing data from China. Chinese HSBC PMI printed above forecast and

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added a few pips on the back of strong manufacturing data from China. Chinese HSBC PMI printed above forecast and previous months at 50.90 showing expansion. Inventories this week showed an unexpected increase in supply and OPEC Ministers decided to hold current production levels but agreed to review them if supply grew. Traders remain hesitant, however, America moves ever closer to the edge of the ‘fiscal cliff. The clock is ticking with just over two left for a deal to agree if the US is to avoid the parcel of tax hikes and spending cuts. If nothing is done the fiscal tightening is expected to push America – the world’s largest oil consumer – back into recession

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Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 14

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

50.90

50.50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

1.6%

1.8%

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

44.6

45.0

44.5

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

46.3

47.2

46.8

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

46.3

46.6

46.2

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.2%

2.2%

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ)

-0.2%

0.0%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.4%

1.5%

USD

Core CPI (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

USD

CPI (MoM)

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.1%

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

-1.40%

0.00%

0.40%

USD

CPI (YoY)

1.8%

1.9%

2.2%

USD

Core CPI (YoY)

1.9%

2.0%

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Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-0.5	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B