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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil is trading at 88.67 gaining 27 cents today. Nymex crude oil prices gained 0.4 percent taking cues from

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 20, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 88.67 gaining 27 cents today. Nymex crude oil prices gained 0.4 percent taking cues from expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories. Additionally, weakness in the DX also pushed upside in the crude oil prices. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories shortly; ahead of the report crude oil remains positive. The EIA crude oil inventories is expected to show a decline by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending on 14th December 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 1.8 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are also expected to increase by 1.0 million barrels for the same period.

German Ifo Business Climate rose by 1 point to 102.4-mark in December as against a rise of 101.4-level in November. European Current Account was at a surplus of 3.9 billion euros in October from earlier surplus of 2.4 billion euros a month ago which is not expected to continue. US housing starts reported below forecast while building permits reported above. These two numbers balance off against each other giving a cancelling any market effects.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 19

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.4

 

102.0 

 

101.4 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

107.1

 

108.0 

 

108.1 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

97.9

 

96.3 

 

95.2 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

19

 

25 

 

33 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.899M

 

0.875M 

 

0.868M 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.861M

 

0.873M 

 

0.888M 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

1.0% 

 

-1.5%

   


WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 20 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.5%

0.6%

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

 

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