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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis June 21, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Jan 1, 2011, 00:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil is trading down at 82.91. It should be noted that there is one important event still to come, but not until late

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis June 21, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading down at 82.91. It should be noted that there is one important event still to come, but not until late in the day and that is the FOMC announcement and address by Chairman Bernanke.

The EIA inventory, surprised markets today as investors thought that we would see higher consumption and a drop in supply. The release today stated:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)  increased  by  2.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 387.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are in the lower limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.1 million barrels last week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 20, 2012 actual. v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

   

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.66T

 

-0.36T 

 

-0.51T 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

8.1K

 

-3.0K 

 

-12.8K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 21  08:30  Spain

Jun 21  08:50  France

Jun 21  09:30  UK

Jun 21  09:50  France

Jun 21  15:00  US

Jun 21  17:00  US

Jun 22  15:30  Italy

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US

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