Crude Oil: a Panther Crouching for a Spring
What do we see when we look at the chart with the price behavior of one or another trading instrument? We see the result of several decisions and actions. But decisions aren’t made without reason. They are made under the influence of expectations, opinions, and analytical conclusions from observations and calculations. But in addition to that, the chart may show the general feeling of market players.
So, what can the chart with the Brent price dynamics over the last four years tell us? The decline started in February 2013 and stopped in January 2015. Since then, the market has been correcting the previous decline. If the first year of the correction looked like an uptrend, then this year it looks more like a downtrend.
However, inside this descending correctional structure, we can see a local ascending tendency. As a result, we can see the situation, when the newly-formed rising impulse may break the descending tendency on the more global scale. The only deterrent is the level of 54.90 (the high reached on May 25th 2015). It means that after reaching this level, the market may be slightly corrected, but then continue its growth. In this situation, one of the most difficult tasks is to predict upside targets, because this growth is likely to be only mid-term. The closest upside target might be the high reached on January 3rd 2017 at 58.50.
So, what can influence the development of the uptrend in the short-term? According to the EIA (the US Energy Information Administration), the Crude Oil Inventories in the USA lost almost 13%. Also, they reported on the US Oil Rig Count, which reduced as well. May be the decline in the oil prices forced American drilling companies to slow down a bit. In addition to that, there were some speculations that Exxon Mobil Corp. Would close one of its largest oil refineries in the USA. Some political issues in Venezuela, which may result in the oil delivery interruptions, probably supported the growth of the prices. Reports of the oil extraction suspension in the largest fields of Libya, the Sharara field, affected traders and investors as well. The Crude Oil Inventories in the USA are steadily decreasing and it probably means that there is some kind of balance on the market. If this dynamics continues, the outlook for the oil will be “bullish”, taking into account the decrease of the oil extraction by Russia and the OPEC countries. The Afghanistan strategy, presented by Donald Trump, was due in no small part to that. The strategy implied that the American soldiers would stay in the country, but at the same time, Trump promised to implement a heavy-handed and pragmatic approach to support the government in Kabul. In the wake of the above-said, one may assume that market players, traders and investors snatched at every opportunity to benefit from the oil process increase.
Also, we may assume that the OPEC’s comments about the oil extraction suspension due to the excessive supply on the market are not taken seriously. And the fulfillment of obligations relating to the oil production decrease by the members of the organization leaves a lot to be desired. However, in the short-term, it might serve as a deterrent. In the long-term, the oil market will reduce the influence of progressing technologies and less expensive energy resources.
This article is written by Dmitri Gurkovskiy, a senior analyst at RoboForex