Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Continues to See Resistance Above

WTI and Brent Crude Oil

The light sweet crude oil market has found a bit of resistance at the $66.50 level, an area that has been important multiple times going back multiple years. It is interesting that we find ourselves trying to break out but failing. The question at this point is whether or not we have enough momentum to break out to the upside, perhaps going to the $70 level.

I think part of this is going to be based on the tensions between the Americans and the Iranians. Will they attack over the weekend? That is the question everybody is asking. You have seen in the past what happens, but as soon as people realize that the Americans are not going to destroy the oil infrastructure, then it collapses.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets are struggling with $72. A pullback to $70 would make a certain amount of sense. Again, this is another situation that if there is in fact a military strike over the weekend, it changes things for about a few days, and then we go back to normal. Do be aware of the fact that if you get involved in a position heading into the weekend and something goes against you, it could go against you quite quickly, so you have to be very cautious.

I do think that we are trying to grind our way to the upside and find that summer range. Right now, though, we just do not have it. We are getting close to the so-called Golden Cross when the 50-day EMA breaks above the 200-day EMA, so that is bullish as well.

We have two things going on right now: that concern and the fact that we are trying to find the summer driving range coming up. That is typically a little higher, so that is part of what has been going on as well. I would be hesitant to get involved here only unless we see a massive spike over the opening after the weekend. I suspect then you might have a great shorting opportunity for a short-term trade. Longer-term, I think we are just trying to grind towards $70.

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