Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Looking to Stabilize Heading into Juneteenth Holiday

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market is currently trying to find some type of support, and if we were to break down from here, the $70 level could be a bit of a support level. There’s a gap underneath there that could also get filled, but quite frankly, this is moving much along the lines of whether or not the situation in the Middle East remains calm.

That being said, there are major supply problems still, and there are massive supply drops in various countries around the world. So, I think we will eventually see a bounce, and we did, in fact, try to see that on Wednesday, but the 200-day EMA is offering a bit of a barrier.

I think short-term rallies end up being sold into at the first signs of exhaustion. I don’t really want to buy oil at the moment, maybe later, because it will get overdone, it always does. So, ultimately, this is a situation where any signs of weakness after a bounce, I think, opens up the possibility of selling again.

Brent Market Dynamics and Holiday Liquidity

The Brent market went back and forth during the trading session as we are sitting just above a gap, and if we do choose to fill the gap, we will probably go looking to the $70 level. The 200-day EMA sits just below a significant barrier, sitting right at the $84 level. I think any rally towards that area probably gets sold into, just as it did on Wednesday.

Now, keep in mind that Friday is a holiday in the United States and therefore a holiday for futures markets, so we may get a little bit of a wiggle here, and then at the end of the trading session, we will have a lack of liquidity for the few hours that we are open for electronic trading.