Gold is losing ground as traders focus on the rebound of the U.S. dollar. The American currency gains ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focus on the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI report.
The report showed that ISM Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July, exceeding the analyst forecast of 54. The report provided material support to the U.S. dollar as it showed that the manufacturing sector continued to grow at a robust pace.
Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on recent currency interventions. U.S. intervened to support the Japanese yen. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the country could be forced to start selling Treasuries to support the local currency. U.S. intervention pushed yen higher and lowered the risk of additional sales of Treasuries by Japan.
Falling Treasury yields did not provide support to gold markets as traders remained focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 66.5% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September.
Gold continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will provide gold with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum.
On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will push gold towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range.
Silver pulls back as gold/silver ratio remains stuck near the 70.00 level. From the technical point of view, silver remains range-bound, and traders are waiting for stronger catalysts.
The nearest support level for silver is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range. If silver manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the next support at $51.00 – $52.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the upside, a move above the $59.00 level will open the way to the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00.
Platinum retreats despite the strong pullback in the oil markets. Oil prices are down by -5% amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Palladium markets are down by -1.8%, which is bearish for platinum.
Platinum failed to settle above the $1650 level and pulled back towards the $1600 level. In case platinum declines below $1600, it will head towards the $1550 level. If platinum manages to settle below $1550, it will move towards the next support, which is located in the $1500 – $1520 range. A move below the $1500 level will indicate that platinum is ready to gain additional downside momentum.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.