Crude Oil Price Analysis – WTI Drifts Below $70 as Middle East Risks Fade

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market continues to hang around just below the $70 level, a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be watching very closely. The market is sitting right around the middle of the gap, higher from the war kicking off, and now we’ve basically done a complete turnaround and return trip from the massive move.

That being said, we still need to look at this through the prism of a market that may be trying to find its summer range. That summer range, I think, could extend all the way to the 200-day EMA sitting right around $78.75. So, we’ll see. I think buying dips still continues to work in general, but I’m not looking for much here. I recognize that this is a market that will be very noisy in general.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets are also trying to test the $70 level. We have filled the gap. I think at this point we’re trying to find the bottom. The price action has certainly slowed. I don’t feel particularly rushed to buy oil; I just expect that sooner or later, we will get some type of bounce in this general vicinity. That could take days, that could take weeks, we just don’t know.

Right now, this is a very neutral market, and I think it will remain so as we are trying to price in the idea of peace in the Middle East, but let’s be honest, it wouldn’t take much to flare things up again. If they don’t kick off more military conflict, then oil probably finds its floor, and then range trades for a while like it generally does in the summertime anyway. I think we’re in the process of trying to do that.

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