Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bull Flag Breakout Reclaims 10-Day MA – Targets $64.55

Tuesday’s Bull Flag Breakout

Crude oil triggered a clean bull flag breakout off a critical support zone, surging to a daily high of $61.43. The move reclaimed the 10-day average, tested the 20-day line as support, and currently trades in the upper third of the range—poised for a strong close that reinforces underlying buyer control.

First Pullback Context

The recent decline marked the initial correction following the explosive two-day rally off the $56.41 swing low (A). That advance met resistance near the falling 50-day average, now at $61.67 and converging with a major downtrend line from the June $74.44 peak—plus a prior support shelf held through August and September.

Breakout Significance

The bull flag trigger gained extra weight as the 10-day average converged with the flag’s lower boundary at breakout. Adding conviction, the 20-day average has begun turning higher after prolonged sideways-to-down action, confirming improving short-term trend structure.

Primary Resistance Cluster

Immediate overhead supply sits at the falling 50-day average ($61.67), the June downtrend line, and the prior support zone. A decisive push through this confluence would clear the path for continuation and likely challenge higher measured targets.

Upside Measured Targets

Price symmetry between the two advancing legs points to $65.66 as the ultimate objective. En route lie the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $64.55 and the falling 200-day average at $65.08—both expected to provide stiff, long-term resistance given repeated prior breakout failures.

Weekly Chart Setup

The weekly timeframe currently shows an inside week, with Tuesday’s rally already breaking above last week’s $61.78 high. Sustained trade above that level, followed by a push beyond the recent swing high at $63.03 (B), would trigger a powerful weekly trend continuation signal.

Outlook

The bull flag breakout and 10-day reclaim place buyers in firm control, targeting the 50-day/downtrend line confluence near $61.67–$62.00 first. Follow-through above $63.03 activates the $64.55–$65.66 measured move. Any pullback should find support at the 20-day and former flag boundary; only failure back into the flag would delay the second-leg advance.

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