Breakout Holds as $102.87 Turns to Support
Crude oil continued to show strength on Tuesday after its recovery of the prior lower swing high at $102.87 on Monday. A slightly higher high of $107.78 was reached before sellers regained control and drove price down to a low of $100.48 for the day, slightly above Monday’s low. The day therefore generated a higher daily high and higher low, and most of the day’s range was centered near prior resistance, now acting as support, around $102.87. This behavior reinforces the importance of that reclaimed level as a key pivot supporting the current advance.
Momentum Builds Despite Limited Follow-Through
Last Friday, strength was seen with the reclaim of the 10-day moving average. On Monday, an upside breakout was confirmed with a daily close above the prior high of $102.87. Although Tuesday’s price action did not show much immediate continuation, trading remains largely above the prior resistance zone. Monday’s closing price was the highest daily close for crude oil since June 2022, highlighting improving bullish momentum. That is a sign of strength for the current advance and supports the case made for higher prices.
Fibonacci Levels Point Toward $110.28
The prior high of $102.87 reached a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which was exceeded yesterday, with a breakout confirmed since the day ended above the prior high. This suggests that at least the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downswing may be reached, which comes in at $110.28.
Trend Structure Defines Bullish Path
Two trend indicators, an uptrend line and the 20-day moving average, have been tracking each other closely for much of the recent advance. They each represent a potential dynamic support level for the trend, and their recent convergence increases the significance of the identified support zone. This means a strong bullish reaction is possible when they are next tested as support, while a failure of that zone could lead to accelerated bearish momentum. Most importantly, they establish an upside trajectory for crude oil that is expected to continue unless the 20-day moving average and uptrend line are broken to the downside.
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