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Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Continues to Grind

By:
Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jul 3, 2025, 14:36 GMT+00:00

The oil market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, but at the point it looks like we are going to do whatever we can to rally, and grind to the upside as summer typically does just that. With the war gone, we can return to normal trading.

WTI/CL Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, but then turned around to rally a bit as the jobs number came out a little hotter than anticipated. Nonetheless, we are looking at the 200-day EMA just above, and I think that it will offer a little bit of psychological resistance. But I had been watching this market very closely as it had been paying quite a bit of attention to the $65 level.

It was a previous resistance barrier, and then we spiked after the Israeli-Iran conflict. Now we’ve pulled back to sit still and we are trying to break to the upside. So, I think ultimately this is a market that will eventually find its way to the upside and dips should be bought.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets look pretty much the same. If we can clear the $69 level, I think Brent has a real shot to go to the 200 day EMA. This is the same situation where we shot straight up in the air when the conflict began and then fell apart almost as soon as it stopped. With that being the case, you have to look at this as a market that ultimately probably tries to find its way to much higher levels, but I think it’s going to be more of a grind. It’s going to be more of a typical move, not a neurotic one.

We won’t be seeing big swings like we saw a couple of weeks ago. Nonetheless, I think short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities in Brent just like they do in the light, sweet crude market and therefore I have no interest in shorting. This is the time of year that is typically very bullish for both of these markets anyways, so with all of that being said, I am a buyer.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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