Given the early price action, the direction of September WTI crude oil futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $66.81.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower early Friday. Escalating trade tensions between the United States and China are helping to keep a lid on prices while concerns that renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran will tighten supplies are underpinning the market.
At 0800 GMT, September WTI crude oil is trading $66.27, down $0.55 or -0.80%.
Prices were stable earlier in the session until the International Energy Agency said, “U.S. sanctions against Iran could make maintaining the world’s oil supply ‘very challenging’.”
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when sellers took out the July 18 bottom at $66.29. The main trend will change to up on a move through $69.92.
The main range is $62.99 to $72.98. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at $66.81 to $67.99. These two levels are new resistance.
Given the early price action, the direction of September WTI crude oil futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $66.81.
A sustained move under $66.81 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the previous main bottom at $66.29 will signal the selling pressure is getting stronger.
The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under $66.29 with the June 18 main bottom at $62.99 the next likely downside target.
A sustained move over $66.81 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move attracts enough buyers, we could see a spike into the main 50% level at $67.99.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.