Crude Oil Price Update – High-to-High Analysis Indicates Rally is Slowing

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures hit their highest level of the year early Friday before backing off late in the session. The rally was driven by rising hopes that the United States and China would soon reach a deal to end their seven-month trade dispute. Gains were limited by concerns over rising U.S. production. On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. output had hit a new report of 12 million barrels per day.

At 19:05 GMT, April WTI crude oil is trading $57.24, up $0.28 or +0.49%. Earlier in the session, the market was trading as high as $57.81.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous day’s high.

The market isn’t close to changing the main trend to down, however, it is up eight sessions from its last main bottom, which puts it in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. A lower close today will form the reversal top. If confirmed next week, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

Currently, the short-term range is $51.62 to $57.81. If there is a short-term correction then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at $54.72 to $53.98.

Daily Technical Forecast

The most important number into the close is yesterday’s close at $56.96. Holding above this level will signal the presence of buyers. They may make a run at the intraday high at $57.81.

Closing below $56.96 will form a closing price reversal top. This would put the market in a position to challenge the nearest support angle at $55.62.