Crude Oil Price Update – Holding $24.97 Could Trigger Rally into $27.99 – $30.04

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging higher on Friday, but inside yesterday’s wide range. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders could also be waiting for the release of the March U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 12:30 GMT. This report could offer crude oil traders some insight as to the size of the demand destruction from the coronavirus outbreak.

At 09:15 GMT, May WTI crude oil futures are trading $25.86, up $0.54 or +2.13%.

On Thursday, the market posted its biggest one-day gain, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output, but made no offer to reduce U.S. production.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $28.49 will change the main trend to up. A move through $19.27 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This led to the change in momentum. The minor trend changed to up on the trade through the last minor top at $25.24. A trade through $19.27 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is $36.70 to $19.27. Its retracement zone at $27.99 to $30.04 is the primary upside target.

The intermediate range is $28.49 to $19.27. Its retracement zone at $23.88 to $24.97 is currently being straddled.

The short-term range is $19.27 to $27.39. Its retracement zone at $23.33 to $22.37 is potential support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $25.86, the direction of the May WTI crude oil market the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $24.97.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $24.97 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can produce enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into a price cluster at $27.99 to $28.20.

Taking out the main top at $28.49 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger a spike into $30.04.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $24.97 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential targets a series of retracement levels at $23.88, $23.33 and $22.37.

Taking out the short-term Fibonacci level at $22.37 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with potential targets coming in at $19.70, $19.27 and $18.49.