Crude Oil Price Update – Minor Trend Changes to Down Under $52.30 with $50.63 Next Potential Target

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are inching lower on Friday as concerns about Chinese cities in lockdown due to coronavirus outbreaks dampened the outlook for higher prices driven by strong import data from the world’s biggest crude importer and President-elect Joe Biden’s newly unveiled plans for a large stimulus package.

At 09:10 GMT, March WTI crude oil futures are trading $53.08, down $0.54 or -1.01%.

Crude imports into China were up 7.3% in 2020, but the country also reported the highest number of daily COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months on Friday leading to lockdowns in major cities.

Meanwhile, a nearly $2 trillion COVID-19 relief package in the U.S. unveiled by President-elect Joe Biden may increase oil demand from the world’s biggest crude consumer but worse than expected jobs cast a shadow over the plans. Wall Street also questioned how the country would pay for the program.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of a closing price reversal top on Wednesday and its confirmation on Thursday.

A trade through $53.94 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest main bottom at $47.31.

The minor range is also up. A trade through $52.30 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The first minor range is $53.94 to $52.30. Its 50% level at $53.12 is currently being straddled.

The second minor range is $47.31 to $53.94. Its 50% level at $50.63 is the next downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March WTI crude oil futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $53.12.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $53.12 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of $53.94. Taking out this level will put the market back on track for an eventual test of the January 8, 2020 main top at $57.41.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $53.12 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is $52.30. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to down. This could trigger a sharp break into the next pivot at $50.63.

The market starts to open up to the downside under $50.63 with $47.31 a potential downside target over the near-term.