Gold vs. Bitcoin: BTC Poised to Break as XAUUSD Consolidates Below $3,500

Bitcoin (BTC) prices continue to consolidate within the $105,000 to $115,000 resistance band, looking for the next direction. The lack of bullish momentum in bitcoin prices signals fading confidence, especially from retail investors. The chart below, from Google Trends, shows that Bitcoin interest has dropped to 18, the lowest since October, indicating weakening public sentiment.

Despite the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, its hawkish tone has added to market caution. The Fed noted that tariffs could temporarily boost inflation but still projects two rate cuts this year. However, strong labour markets and unanchored inflation expectations are likely to delay any immediate easing.

The chart below shows that US inflation expectations dropped to a three-month low of 5.0% in June 2025. This decline is slightly below the preliminary estimate of 5.1% and significantly lower than the 6.6% reading in May.

The cautious policy stance and declining retail interest limit Bitcoin’s upside in the short term. However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, at 64, indicates a rising risk appetite, which could support volatile rallies. For gold, persistent inflation fears and uncertainty around Fed policy continue to provide a solid bullish backdrop.

Gold-to-Bitcoin Ratio Signals Bullish Momentum for BTC

The long-term chart for the Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio shows a strong correlation between gold and Bitcoin prices. The chart reveals a bearish trend in the ratio, where each peak at the descending trendline resistance coincides with a rally in Bitcoin and gold.

A break below 0.026 will confirm further downside in the ratio, signalling potential strength in Bitcoin. The June monthly candle forms an inside bar, indicating price compression and suggesting that the next momentum could be bearish for the ratio.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Cup Pattern Eyes Breakout Toward $140K

The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows that prices are consolidating below the key resistance zone between $105,000 and $115,000. A break above this zone would likely trigger a strong surge in Bitcoin prices.

The formation of a cup pattern since 2021, followed by a breakout from a descending broadening wedge, indicates positive price development. Additionally, the consolidation above the $75,000 level highlights strong bullish momentum. A confirmed break above $115,000 could initiate a move toward the $140,000 area.

Ascending Broadening Wedge Hints at New Highs

The daily chart for Bitcoin shows strong bullish price action above the $75,000 area. A break above the red dotted trendline near the $115,000 level will likely trigger a move toward the resistance zone around $140,000. The emergence of an ascending broadening wedge pattern highlights strong price volatility and suggests further upside potential.

Gold Technical Analysis

Consolidation Between $3,000–$3,500 Builds Bullish Case

The weekly chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating between the $3,000 and $3,500 area. This consolidation indicates bullish price action and highlights the potential for an upside breakout.

The previous consolidation phases, from April to June and again in November and December 2024, were followed by breakouts that initiated strong rallies. The current range between $3,000 and $3,500 reflects a similar bullish setup. A break above $3,500 will likely trigger the next strong surge in gold prices.

Gold Consolidates at Broadening Wedge as Bulls Watch $3,500

The weekly chart for spot gold shows that the price is breaking above the resistance of the ascending broadening wedge pattern. The consolidation near this resistance edge indicates price uncertainty.

A break above $3,500 will signal a bullish breakout. Meanwhile, any consolidation toward the $3,000 area may offer buying opportunities for gold investors.