Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $68.79, Weakens Under $68.46

October West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading nearly flat shortly after the U.S. opening. The market is also trading inside Friday’s range, which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

The price action also suggests the fundamentals are nearly balanced although there is a slight bias to the upside. Supporting the market are concerns over supply, due to the sanctions on Iran. Helping to limit gains are worries that an extended trade dispute between the United States and China will lead to a drop in demand.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Last week, buyers took out three main tops at $67.72, $68.86 and $69.19 to change and confirm the change in trend. A move through $69.31 will reaffirm the uptrend. The market is in no danger of changing the trend to down, but it is in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

If the upside momentum continues over the near-term then buyers may take a shot at a pair of main tops at $71.05 and $71.29.

The main range is $71.29 to $63.89. Its retracement zone at $68.46 to $67.59 is currently support. It is also helping to control the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on today’s early trade, two levels should determine the direction of the market today. Controlling the upside is a downtrending Gann angle at $68.79. Controlling the downside is the Fibonacci level at $68.46.

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over $68.79 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a breakout over Friday’s high at $69.31. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at $70.04. This is the last major resistance angle before the $71.05 and $71.29 main tops.

A sustained move under $68.46 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a spike into the 50% level at $67.59 and the steep uptrending Gann angle at $67.39.

Look out to the downside if $67.39 fails as support.