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James Hyerczyk
Crude Oil
Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled slightly better on Tuesday after profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of a report from the American Petroleum Institute reversed early selling pressure that had driven prices to their lowest level since June 22.

On Tuesday, September WTI crude oil settled at $67.16, up $0.09 or +0.13%.

Prices were also supported by expectations of lower exports from Venezuela with traders looking for a decline of 3.5 million barrels in the week to July 13, according to a preliminary Reuters poll. Traders also reacted to the news that Libya’s National Oil Corp. said it had declared force majeure on crude oil loadings at Zawiya port as of Monday.

Daily September WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum may be trying to shift to the upside after Tuesday’s closing price reversal bottom. A trade through $67.61 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

A trade through $66.35 will negate the closing price reversal chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $72.98.

The minor trend is also down. A move through $70.60 will change the minor trend top up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is $62.99 to $72.98. Its retracement zone at $68.00 to $66.82 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $70.60 to $66.35. Its 50% level or pivot at $68.47 is a potential upside target.

The intermediate range is $72.98 to $66.35. Its retracement zone at $69.67 to $70.45 is the best upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Tuesday’s close at $67.16, the direction of the September WTI crude oil market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $66.82.

A sustained move under $66.82 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then sellers should take out $66.35 easily. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the next major target doesn’t come in until $62.99.

A sustained move over $66.82 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out $67.61 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. This could fuel a spike into $68.00, followed by $68.47.

If the buying becomes strong enough to take out $68.67 then we could see a surge into at least $69.67.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $66.82 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buying is getting stronger or sellers are still in control.

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