Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil is under pressure as risk appetite crumbles amid a lack of progress in US “fiscal cliff” negotiations.

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 24-28, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil is under pressure as risk appetite crumbles amid a lack of progress in US “fiscal cliff” negotiations. Divergent headlines pulled markets in opposing directions throughout the week but confidence began collapse in earnest as plans to vote on the so-called “Plan B” – a unilateral Republican initiative aimed at raising taxes on millionaires – failed to secure enough support to warrant a vote. Rumors of an imminent resignation by Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti are adding to selling pressure. Crude oil closed the week at 88.90 after trading above the 90.50 level mid-week.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 21, 2012	88.90	90.05	90.05	87.97	-1.27%
Dec 20, 2012	90.04	89.64	90.53	89.27	0.44%
Dec 19, 2012	89.64	88.44	90.32	88.25	1.36%
Dec 18, 2012	88.44	87.86	88.63	87.69	0.67%
Dec 17, 2012	87.86	87.48	88.14	87.00	0.41%

As markets turned to risk aversion crude oil dipped. Also trades took quick profits after the commodity climbed a few dollars. Traders are worried about changes to tax laws in 2013 and are selling off positions to book profit by year end.

The EIA inventory this week showed a larger than expected decline in supplies helping to support prices. Crude oil dropped over one per cent in NYMEX after the talks over the US budget came to a standstill. WTI fell the most in two weeks, shedding over one per cent as concerns grew over the US economic growth.

I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	00:01	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	-3.3%		-2.6%
	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-8.1	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions	1.3B	25.0B	3.2B
Dec. 18	09:30	GBP	Core CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%	2.6%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Current Account	-107.5B	-103.4B	-118.1B
Dec. 19	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	102.4	102.0	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	107.1	108.0	108.1
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	97.9	96.3	95.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	19	25	33
	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.899M	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.861M	0.873M	0.888M
Dec. 20	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	0.3%	-0.7%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.9%	1.5%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	361K	357K	344K
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	3.1%	2.8%	2.7%
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3225K	3199K	3213K
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	5.04M	4.87M	4.76M
	15:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	8.1	-3.0	-10.7
Dec. 21	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.6	5.9	5.8
	09:30	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	3.8%	3.5%	3.7%
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-12.8B	-14.0B	-17.4B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.9%	1.0%	1.0%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.6%	-0.2%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.7%	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	72.9	74.7	74.5

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010

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