The past week has been very difficult for oil markets, as we are waiting for the results of the US/Iran talks.
The light sweet crude oil market tried to break above the $66 level earlier this week but fell apart as we just cannot hang on to gains. The $62 level offers support, but the candlestick I am looking at for the week looks a lot like a shooting star preceded by a hammer.
This tells me we are still probably in a fairly neutral position. This makes a lot of sense considering that the Americans and the Iranians are in the middle of talks and trying to sort out what to do next.
If we were to break above the $66 level, it opens up a move to the $70 level. What you have here is a situation where traders are probably focusing more or less on short-term moves than anything else.
The Brent market looks very much the same. The $70 level is the beginning of pretty significant resistance to the $71 level. Overall, I anticipate that this is a market we will continue to see a lot of noise in, but I also recognize that it will follow right along with the other grades of crude. I do not think crude has a whole lot of upward momentum left.
In fact, I think what we are trying to figure out is whether or not the trading range is up here or if it is down where we were previously closer to the swing low. Somewhere over the next couple of weeks, we will figure it out, but as things stand right now, this is a market that still is going to be choppy.
You will have to watch the latest headlines between the Americans and the Iranians as to where we go next. Any military action by the US obviously would cause a spike, but that spike probably ends up being a selling opportunity.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.