Decoding Natural Gas: Signals Point to Further Downside Pressures

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 07.12.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas falls to a low of 2.54 before finding intraday support. Downward pressure remains strong as the decline has stalled but reaching support was not followed by much of a bounce. The 2.54 low matches the 2.55 support level identified in earlier articles. Given how hard natural gas has come down a test of lower prices remains a strong possibility. Natural gas was down over 5% earlier today and it is likely to close weak, in the lower third of the day’s range.

Bearish Continuation Indicated Below 2.54

A drop below today’s low of 2.54 signals a bearish continuation. The next lower targets will then be 2.50, followed by a price range from 2.44 to 2.42. The lower range includes a falling ABCD extended target and a prior swing low and monthly low, respectively. An initial standard target was reached and exceeded earlier today on the way down at a price of 2.62. The next lower target for the ABCD pattern takes the price distance in the AB leg and multiplies it by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio to arrive at the price decline in the CD leg of the drop.

Large Bearish Flag Pattern Kicks In

Now that natural gas has fallen further below its long-term uptrend line the larger bearish flag pattern looks to be kicking in. The flag (rising parallel trend channel) portion of the pattern followed a relatively aggressive falling pole (sharp prior decline). Symmetry was reflected in the parallel trend channel as a mid-line can be drawn (not shown) with roughly equal price action both above and below the line. It also means that once symmetry is disrupted (breakdown below lower rising channel line) the potential for sharp moves again becomes a possibility. We may be starting to see that today. If that is correct the lower price target becomes more likely to be hit as well as exceeded to the downside.

The August 21 swing low of 2.425 looks to have particular significance as it represents a higher swing low that defines the rising trend channel. It is now at risk of being broken. Certainly, we can say the uptrend has been broken. We’ll be watching carefully for additional clues as to what might come next.

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