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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – August 11, 2017 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Aug 11, 2017, 10:15 UTC

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly lower during the pre-market session. Investors are monitoring the situation

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly lower during the pre-market session. Investors are monitoring the situation between the United States and North Korea, and traders are doing the same, but also waiting to respond to today’s U.S. consumer inflation report.

Although the main focus is on North Korea, we could see a response by traders to the CPI report. Look for a bullish tone to develop if the CPI numbers come in under the 0.2% forecast.

The tough question for investors will be whether to continue to take protection over the week-end. There is risk because no one is sure if there will be military action or not.

I’m thinking an intraday rally if the CPI number comes in under expectations. However, gains will likely be limited and sellers may return to drive the market lower into the close ahead of the week-end.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 22132 on August 8.

The main range is 21444 to 22132. The index is currently testing the upper level of its retracement zone at 21788 to 21707.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 21817 and the earlier price action, the direction of the Dow is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 21788.

A sustained move over 21788 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the Dow into a pair of Gann angles at 21892 and 21940. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at 22036.

Crossing to the weak side of the 50% level at 21788 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target a Fibonacci level at 21707, followed by an uptrending angle at 21668.

We could see another steep break if 21688 fails. This is the last potential support angle before the 21444 main bottom.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 21788 all session. Don’t be surprised by a two-sided trade.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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