E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Bullish Over 25310, Bearish Under 24636

The March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract closed higher last week, settling at 25314, up 78 or +0.31%. The market posted an inside move, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 26684 will change the main trend to up. A move through 23088 will reaffirm the downtrend, setting up a possible break into the next main bottom at 21575.

The main range is 21575 to 26684. Its retracement zone is 24130 to 23527. This zone is controlling the near-term tone of the market. It essentially stopped the sell-off during the first week of February at 23088 so we’ll call it support.

The short-term range is 26684 to 23088. Its retracement zone is 24886 to 25310. This zone has been straddled the last two weeks. Trader reaction to this zone will set the tone of the market this week.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 25314, the direction of the e-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 25310.

A sustained move over 25310 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a downtrending Gann angle at 25660. Since the trend is down, we could see sellers on the first test of this angle.

Overtaking 25660 could trigger a further rally into a pair of downtrending Gann angles at 26172 and 26428. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 26684 main top. Any of these angles could draw sellers since the main trend is down.

A sustained move under 25310 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the E-mini Dow futures contract into a potential support cluster at 24903, 24886 and 24636. Watch for a technical bounce on a test of this area.

If 24636 fails then look for a possible steep sell-off into 24130. This is another trigger point for an acceleration into 23527, followed by 23239 then 23088.

Taking out 23088 could trigger the start of a steep decline.