E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 30950 to Sustain Rally

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are inching higher early Friday, following a four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors position themselves ahead of the highly anticipated January non-farm payrolls report. With four straight days of gains, the blue-chip Dow has gained 3.6%. The price action suggests the market has rebounded from last week’s sharp losses as the speculative trading frenzy fizzled.

At 07:54 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 30994, up 44 or +0.14%.

Looking ahead, the Labor Department will release its jobs report for January at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect 50,000 payrolls added last month, after a decline of 140,000 in December, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.7%.

There have been signs of improvement in the labor market recovery. Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data showed 779,000 first time filers, the lowest since November 28 and below the 830,000 expected by economists.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down, but momentum has been trending higher since Monday’s closing price reversal bottom. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 31188.

A trade through 29552 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This is highly unlikely, but we could see a minor reversal top due to the steep rally. This won’t change the trend, but if confirmed, it could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor range is 31188 to 29552. Its retracement zone at 30563 to 30370 is the first support area.

The short-term range is 29318 to 31188. Its retracement zone at 30253 to 30032 is additional support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Thursday’s close at 30950.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30950 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for a test of 31188.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30950 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a test of 30563. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of this level. If it fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into a pair of 50% levels at 30370 and 30253.