E-mini Dow Shifts Momentum to Upside

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging higher shortly before the cash market opening on Friday, overcoming earlier losses, as investors continued to assess the risks stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At 13:04 GMT, the Blue Chip March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract is trading 33182, up 26 or +0.08%.

“With a broader Russian invasion of Ukraine underway, the potential geopolitical, economic, and asset implications of the conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine are once again Top of Mind,” Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan said in a note.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher, following the formation of Thursday’s closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 35060 will change the main trend to up. A move through 32167 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The long-term range is the contract range at 30089 to 36832. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 33461 to 32665.

The short-term range is 35752 to 32167. Its 50% level at 33960 is the first potential upside target.

The main range is 36832 to 32167. Its retracement zone at 34500 to 35050 is the second potential resistance area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini Dow on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 32665.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32665 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into 33461. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 33960.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32665 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into yesterday’s low at 32167. If this level fails then look for a break into the March 25, 2021 bottom at 31641.