E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Bullish NFP Report Will Put 13582.75 on Radar

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching higher early Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, due to be released at 12:30 GMT.

The jobs report will provide hints of how the U.S. economy is faring which could give investors further clues about the Federal Reserve’s path of rate hikes.

Economists expect 258,000 jobs were added in July, down from 372,000 in June, according to Dow Jones. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 3.6% and Average Hourly Wages are expected to have risen by 0.3%.

At 05:35 GMT, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13363.00, up 36.00 or +0.27%. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) settled at $324.32, up $1.43 or +0.44%.

Thursday Recap – Signs of Softening Labor Market

In a sign of a softening in the labor market, data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 260,000 for the week-ended July 30, in line with estimates from Dow Jones.

In stock related news, volume and volatility were extremely light ahead of the jobs data, but the tech-heavy NASDAQ was still able to hit a fresh three-month high on the back of strong performances in Amazon and Advanced Micro Devices, up 2.19% and 5.93%, respectively.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Taking out the nearest main top at 13582.75 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through 12072.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 12814.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The intermediate range is 14327.50 to 11068.50. The index is trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 13082.50 to 12698.00, making it support.

The nearest major upside target is a long-term 50% level at 13812.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 13327.00 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13327.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main top at 13582.75. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the 50% level at 13812.00 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13327.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the intermediate Fibonacci level at 13082.50. Look for an even steeper break into 12814.75 to 12698.00 if the Fib level fails as support.

Side Notes

A stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could be bearish for stocks because it is likely to greenlight another aggressive rate hike by the Fed in September. The Fed is likely to pay particularly close attention to Average Hourly Earnings since they represent inflation.

Strong Average Hourly Earnings could lead to wage spiral inflation, which is dangerous and something the Fed doesn’t want to see.