E-mini S&P 500 Index Bears Eyeing February Bottom at 4094.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat while testing both support and resistance early in the session as investors try to shake off last month’s steep losses ahead of this week’s widely expected 50-basis point rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

At 16:31 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4118.25, down 9.25 or -0.22%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $411.75, down $0.25 or -0.06%.

The Fed will start its two-day meeting on Tuesday, but we won’t hear from the Federal Open Market Committee until Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC will issue its statement on monetary policy at 18:00 GMT, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holding a press conference at 18:30 GMT.

In stock-related news, shares were mixed at the mid-session. Shares of Amazon and Apple continued to slide, but Netflix, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet were up. Honeywell, Intel and Home Depot also rose.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4094.25 will reaffirm the downtrend, while a move through 4509.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 4303.50 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The index is currently down seven sessions from its last main top, putting it inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor range is 4303.50 to 4098.00. Its pivot at 4200.75 is the nearest resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4127.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4127.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 4165.75 will be the first signal of increasing selling pressure. A move through the main bottom at 4094.25 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could trigger an acceleration into the May 12, 2021 main bottom at 4020.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4127.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the pivot at 4200.75.

Sellers could come in on the first test of 4200.75, but overtaking it could trigger an acceleration into the resistance cluster at 4299.25 to 4303.50.