E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 4089.00 to Sustain Upside Momentum
June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures hit a record high on Friday as economy-linked stocks including banks and industrials gained on optimism around strong U.S. economic growth. Financial stocks rose 0.6%, more than any other S&P sector, with Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co rising between0.5% and 0.9%.
At 18:21 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4102.75, up 13.75 or +0.34%.
The banks will kick off the first-quarter earnings season next week, and analysts expect profits for S&P 500 firms to have jumped about 25% year on year, the strongest performance for the quarter since 2018, according to Refinitiv IBES data.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing. The uptrend continued early in the session when buyers took out the previous day’s high at 4098.50. A break back under this price will be the first sign of weakness.
A trade through the intraday high at 4104.00 will reaffirm the uptrend and could trigger a late session acceleration to the upside.
The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3843.25. This is highly unlikely, but the prolonged move up in terms of price and time has put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.
The minor range is 3843.25 to 4104.00. Its retracement zone at 3973.50 to 3942.75 is the nearest support area.
The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4089.00.
A close under this level will form a closing price reversal top. Follow-through selling on Monday could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction with 3973.50 the minimum downside target.