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James Hyerczyk

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening even after giving back earlier gains. The market plunged from its earlier high after the Labor Department reported more than 6 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the week of March 27. The consensus estimate was 3.1 million, but some economists guessed as high as 4 million to 5 million workers filed for jobless claims. Traders said the early price surge was fueled by a jump in crude oil prices.

At 13:06 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2454.50, up 6.50 or +0.27%. The high of the session is 2502.00.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2174.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 3131.00. A trade through 2434.25 will make 2635.75 a new main top. If this occurs then taking out this top will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is down. The minor trend changed to down when sellers took out 2445.00. This also shifted momentum to the downside.

The main trend is 3131.00 to 2174.00. Its retracement zone at 2652.50 to 2765.50 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally at 2635.75 on Tuesday.

The short-term range is 2174.00 to 2635.75. Its retracement zone at 2404.75 to 2350.25 is the next downside target.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2454.50, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the support cluster at 2430.00 to 2427.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2427.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the 50% level at 2404.75.

If 2404.75 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the Fibonacci level at 2350.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 2302.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2430.00 will signal the presence of buyers. Overcoming 2437.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a meaningful short-covering rally.

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