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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are poised to open, giving up earlier gains after President Trump tweeted a Wall Street Journal report on the U.S.-China trade deal is “completely wrong.”

The index had been moving higher after a report said the U.S. agreed to a so-called phase one trade deal with China in principle, sources told CNBC. However, officials from the U.S. and China never made official confirmation of such a deal. Furthermore, Chinese officials are expected to hold a news conference at 14:30 GMT.

Look for heightened volatility at 14:30 GMT.

At 14:01 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3164.00, down 4.00 or -0.13%.

Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through today’s intraday high at 3185.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3069.50. This is highly unlikely. However, the index is trading inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3116.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3164.00, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 3168.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3168.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday high at 3185.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3168.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at 3150.50. This is followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at 3142.50 and an uptrending Gann angle at 3133.50.

Side Notes

Look for a technical bounce on the first test of 3150.50 to 3142.50.

If 3133.50 fails then look for a potential acceleration into the main 50% level at 3127.25.

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