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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are poised to open, giving up earlier gains after President Trump tweeted a Wall Street Journal report on the U.S.-China trade deal is “completely wrong.”

The index had been moving higher after a report said the U.S. agreed to a so-called phase one trade deal with China in principle, sources told CNBC. However, officials from the U.S. and China never made official confirmation of such a deal. Furthermore, Chinese officials are expected to hold a news conference at 14:30 GMT.

Look for heightened volatility at 14:30 GMT.

At 14:01 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3164.00, down 4.00 or -0.13%.

Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through today’s intraday high at 3185.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3069.50. This is highly unlikely. However, the index is trading inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3116.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3164.00, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 3168.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3168.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday high at 3185.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3168.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at 3150.50. This is followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at 3142.50 and an uptrending Gann angle at 3133.50.

Side Notes

Look for a technical bounce on the first test of 3150.50 to 3142.50.

If 3133.50 fails then look for a potential acceleration into the main 50% level at 3127.25.

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