E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Treading Water Ahead of Friday’s NFP Report

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat shortly before the cash market close on Thursday as most of the major players took to the sidelines ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which will reveal the status of the labor market and the health of the economy after a pair of 75 basis point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in June and July.

At 19:11 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4157.00, up 0.75 or +0.02%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $414.42, down $0.03 or -0.01%.

Investors will be watching the July jobs report very closely since the financial markets have priced in an equal chance of a 50 basis point rate hike and a 75 basis point rate hike at its September meeting.

The report is expected to show employers added about 250,000 jobs in July, down from 372,000 in June. The jobless rate is forecast to remain 3.6%, according to FactSet. Average Hourly Earnings, a key inflation indicator, are expected to rise 0.3%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4173.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. The uptrend is safe with the nearest main bottom coming in at 3723.75.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4080.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The nearest resistance is a long-term 50% level at 4169.25. This level essentially stopped the rally at 4173.25 earlier today.

The nearest support is a minor pivot at 4126.75.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 4156.25 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday.

A late session breakout over 4169.25 will signal the presence of buyers, while a move under 4126.75 will indicate that sellers are coming in stronger.