E-mini S&P Finishes Volatile Session in Weak Position

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market close on Tuesday as oil prices climbed yet further, driven by the United States banning Russian oil and other energy imports over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The benchmark index turned higher at the mid-session after President Joe Biden made the Russian oil ban announcement, but the market eventually gave back those gains later in the session.

At 21:20 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4152.75, down $45.75 or -1.09%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) settled at $416.29, down $3.14 or -0.75%.

The energy sector was the biggest gainer on Tuesday amid surging oil prices. Treasury yields were also sharply higher, with the benchmark 10-year note up close to 10 basis points to 1.85% as investors shed bonds as inflation fears escalate. This helped push bank stocks higher.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4101.75 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 4418.75 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 3718.50 to 4808.25. The index is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 4263.50 to 4134.75. This area is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 4134.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4134.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a fast break into the main bottom at 4101.75.

Taking out 4101.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a further decline into the May 12, 2021 main bottom at 4030.50. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the March 30, 2021 main bottom at 3914.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4135.00 will indicate that counter-trend buyers or value-seekers are coming in support the market. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the major 50% level at 4263.50.