ETH Bears to Retarget Sub-$1,750 on Staking Stats and SEC Angst

Bob Mason
Published: Jun 10, 2023, 04:19 GMT+00:00

ETH was back in the red this morning, with staking statistics sending bearish signals. SEC activity this week will test the more resilient investor.

ETH tech analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, ETH joined the broader market in the red, falling 0.27% to end the day at $1,841.
  • Bearish sentiment toward the SEC filings against Binance and Coinbase, Robinhood crypto delistings, and crypto staking statistics weighed.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,750.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.27% on Friday. Partially reversing a 0.71% gain from Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,841. Despite the bearish session, ETH avoided sub-$1,800 for the third consecutive session.

Recovering from an early pullback, ETH rose to an early afternoon high of $1,855. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,862, ETH fell to a late-session low of $1,827. However, finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,829, ETH wrapped up the day at $1,841.

Staking Statistics and the Crypto News Test Buyer Appetite

There were no US economic indicators to distract investors from the crypto news wires on Friday. The lack of US economic indicators left Binance-related news to influence. Binance US announced the temporary suspension of US dollar deposits and an end to US dollar withdrawals in response to the SEC filing against the US entity.

The market response to the news was relatively calm, with Binance US planning to continue as a crypto-only exchange.

Other crypto-related news included Robinhood (HOOD) delisting cardano (ADA), polygon (MATIC), and solana (SOL), another bearish event stemming from the actions of the SEC.

Staking Statistics Turn Bullish as Binance Pauses Dollar Deposits

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows tumbled from 110,976 ETH on Thursday to 43,008 on Friday. Significantly, inflows fell to the lowest level since June 4.

Staking inflows slide.
ETH Staking Inflows 100623

The total value staked rose at a less marked pace, with the staking statistics and a bearish ETH session influencing.

total value staked growth slows.
Total Value Staked 100623

The overnight withdrawal profile was bullish, with principal withdrawals below normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bearish, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to spike before returning to normal levels.

On Friday, the net ETH staking balance jumped by 36.17% to a surplus of 114,240 ETH, equivalent to $210.64 million. Deposits totaled 117,760 ETH versus withdrawals of 3,520 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 149,810 ETH, equivalent to approximately $272.63 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 6.75%, down 1.32% over 24 hours.

Withdrawal profile turns bearish.
ETH Withdrawal Profile – 100623

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Saturday session for ETH and the broader crypto market, with no US economic indicators or FOMC members to consider. The lack of stats and Fed chatter will leave staking statistics and the crypto news wires to provide direction.

Investors should monitor SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase (COIN) updates and related news, which would move the dial.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.67% to $1,828. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,845 before falling to a low of $1,825.

ETH sees red.
ETHUSD 100623 Daily Chart

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

R1 – $ 1,855 S1 – $ 1,827
R2 – $ 1,869 S2 – $ 1,813
R3 – $ 1,897 S3 – $ 1,785

ETH needs to move through the $1,841 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,855. A move through the morning high of $1,845 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,869. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,897.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,827 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,800. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,813 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,785.

ETH support levels in play below the pivot.
ETHUSD 100623 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,854. The 50-day EMA crossed through the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a fall through S1 ($1,827) to target S2 (1,813). However, a breakout from the EMAs and R1 ($1,855) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($1,869). An ETH breakout from the 50-day EMA ($1,854) would send a bullish signal.

EMAs are bearish.
ETHUSD 100623 4 Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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