ETH Bulls Eye $1,950 on Staking Statistics and Withdrawal Projections

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, ETH joined the broader crypto market in the red, falling 1.42% to end the day at $1,873.
• Withdrawal statistics and a negative net staking balance weighed, with Binance-related news leaving ETH at sub-$1,900.
• However, the technical indicators are bullish, signaling a return to $2,100.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.42% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 4.81% loss from Saturday, ETH ended the week up 0.13% to $1,873. Despite the bearish session, ETH avoided sub-$1,850 for the fourth consecutive session.

After a mixed morning, ETH rose to an early afternoon high of $1,937. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,992, ETH fell to a final-hour low of $1,871. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,836, ETH ended the session at $1,873.

Staking Statistics and Withdrawal Projections Sent Mixed Signals

Staking statistics failed to deliver support despite bullish numbers.

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 176,960 ETH on Saturday to 177,984 on Sunday. Inflows reached their second-highest level since the Shapella upgrade.

The total value-staked continued rising despite the bearish Sunday session, supported by ETH staking inflows.

Overnight, the withdrawal profile was more bearish. Principal withdrawals spiked for a prolonged period to test buyer appetite. However, projections signal a return to normal levels, delivering price support.

Despite the bearish withdrawal profile, staking inflows delivered a positive net staking balance. On Sunday, the net staking balance stood at a surplus of 163,120 ETH, equivalent to $310.46 million. Deposits totaled 192,050 ETH versus withdrawals of 28,930 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 0.142 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $0.270 billion.

The Day Ahead

Investors should continue to monitor staking statistics and the withdrawal profile for direction. Withdrawal projections are bullish for the morning session, with principal withdrawals returning to normal levels.

Investors should also monitor the net balance on TokensUnlock, with a return to a net surplus being a bullish price signal.

However, the crypto news wires will continue to influence. The XRP community awaits Court rulings from the SEC v Ripple case, with Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news needing consideration. News of Binance briefly suspending BTC withdrawals left ETH and the broader crypto market in the red on Sunday and this morning.

This afternoon, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving Fed chatter to draw interest.

Ethereum Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 1.14% to $1,852. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,887 before falling to a low of $1,842. ETH briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,850.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to move through the $1,894 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,916 and the Sunday high of $1,937. A return to $1,900 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,960. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,026.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,850 in play. However, barring another crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,800. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,828 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,762.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,886. The 50-day EMA crossed through the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($1,886) would support a breakout from the 50-day ($1,899) and 100-day ($1,900) EMAs to target R1 ($1,916) and the Sunday high of $1,937. However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($1,886) would leave S1 ($1,850) and S2 ($1,828) in view.

A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.