US Dollar Forecast: DXY Slips Below 99.463 Pivot as Weak Jobs Data Hits Sentiment

Dollar Slips Below Pivot as Weak Jobs Data Weighs on Sentiment

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower on Tuesday, extending its pullback from last week’s highs as traders responded to fresh signs of labor market weakness and awaited a deluge of delayed government data. By mid-session, the index was trading below the short-term pivot at 99.463, falling 0.32% to 99.32. Price action is starting to distance itself from both the 200-day moving average at 100.209 and the recent main top at 100.360.

At 15:47 GMT, DXY is trading 99.368, down 0.254 or -0.25%.

Support Opens Up as Dollar Breaches Key Level

Technically, the path under 99.463 appears exposed. The immediate downside target is the October 28 main bottom at 98.565, with the 50-day moving average just below at 98.450. Unless the greenback can claw back above the pivot and hold, sellers could press their advantage toward these support zones.

A short-covering bounce isn’t off the table, but it would likely need a fresh catalyst—possibly from the wave of official data expected once the government fully reopens.

Labor Market Concerns Pressuring the Buck

Tuesday’s decline was triggered in part by ADP’s new weekly estimate, which showed that U.S. private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week through October 25. That’s a stark contrast to last week’s more conventional ADP report, which showed a 42,000-job gain for the month. With the official jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown, alternative data sources like ADP have taken on added weight in shaping market expectations.

Shutdown Nears End, Data Deluge Looms

The U.S. Senate on Monday approved a deal to end the historic government shutdown, with the House expected to vote as soon as Wednesday. That will open the door for a backlog of delayed economic reports, which could confirm suspicions that the economy is cooling—especially if upcoming prints reflect labor market softness or slowing consumer demand.

Sentiment Sours as Euro, Yen Rebound

The euro rose 0.38% to $1.16, climbing back above its declining trend line for the first time since September. Meanwhile, the yen firmed modestly to 153.89 per dollar. ECB policy expectations are helping support the euro, with rates projected to stay flat through 2027, while the Fed is seen easing in the near term. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a rate cut in December.

Outlook: Dollar Faces Pressure Unless Buyers Defend 99.46

Unless buyers defend 99.463 with conviction, the next leg could be lower. With job data turning soft and expectations for Fed cuts creeping higher, the dollar may struggle to regain momentum without a bullish surprise from the incoming government data batch.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.