Silver (XAG) Forecast: Bulls Need a Clean Break Above $51.07 or It’s Back to $50.02

Silver Stalls Below Breakout Zone as Traders Eye Fed Path, Jobs Weakness

Spot silver is holding firm near session highs Tuesday, last quoted at $50.70 after tagging $51.25 — a move that briefly cleared the 61.8% retracement level at $51.07. That zone, from $50.02 to $51.07, is now the key battleground. Buyers are stepping in, but the market hasn’t delivered a clean breakout just yet.

A decisive push through $51.07 could clear the path to the multi-year high at $54.49. Until then, this remains a test zone. A failure here could drag silver back toward $46.72 — the 50-day moving average and most important trend indicator on the chart. If that goes, $45.55 and $41.40 come into view.

ADP Job Loss Data Adds Fuel to Fed Cut Bets

One of the key tailwinds for silver right now is shifting sentiment around the Fed’s next move. A new ADP weekly estimate showed private-sector job losses averaging 11,250 per week in the four weeks through October 25. That’s in sharp contrast to the more conventional monthly ADP report showing a gain of 42,000 for October.

With the government shutdown delaying official labor data, traders are leaning harder on alternative sources like ADP’s weekly tracker. The softness in those figures is adding weight to the idea that the Fed may be closer to cutting — possibly as soon as December.

Government Shutdown Deal Could Unleash Delayed Data

The Senate passed a bill late Monday to fund the government through January and end the shutdown. The House is expected to vote this week, and President Trump has signaled support. Once the bill is signed into law, traders will finally get the delayed inflation and jobs data that could either confirm or challenge current rate cut expectations.

Dollar Softness Providing Tailwind for Silver

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to slide, last quoted at 99.32 — below its 99.46 pivot. With the next support at 98.45 in sight, metals have breathing room. Gold is holding firm near resistance, which is helping silver maintain upward pressure.

Bottom Line

Silver bulls are buying with conviction, but they still need a clean breakout above $51.07 to trigger real momentum. Until that happens, the market remains stuck in a decision zone — and it’s likely to set the tone for the next $5 move.

The broader picture still matters: if the Fed turns dovish, the dollar stays soft, and the government reopens without drama, silver could stay supported into year-end — especially with its new status as a strategic metal keeping the long-term bid alive.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.