Key Insights:
- ETH joined the broader market in the red on Wednesday, falling 1.29% to end the day at $1,911.
- Staking statistics, Binance-related news, and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes weighed on investor sentiment.
- However, the technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a return to $2,000.
Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.29% on Wednesday. Following a 1.02% loss on Tuesday, ETH ended the day at $1,911. Despite the bullish session, ETH fell short of the $1,950 handle.
A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,943. ETH held above the upper level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band before hitting the reverse. The reversal saw ETH fall through the upper level of the resistance band.
However, finding support at the lower level of the resistance band, ETH wrapped up the day at $1,911.
Ethereum Price Action
This morning, ETH was up 0.85% to $1,927. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,900 before rising to a high of $1,930.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed ETH/USD fall below the lower level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band to test support at $1,900 before rising to a high of $1,930. Resistance at the upper level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band capped the early upside.
However, ETH/USD remained above the 50-day ($1,852) and 200-day ($1,754) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.
Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.
Ethereum Price Forecast
Every new Ethereum analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Ethereum forecastsLooking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 57.49 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting another breakout from the higher level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $1,950 psychological level. ETH/USD sits above the 50-day ($1,914) and 200-day ($1,860) EMAs, sending bullish near-term and longer-term signals. Significantly, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, signaling a breakout from the higher level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band.
ETH/USD should avoid a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,914) and the lower level of the resistance band to support a breakout from $1,950.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 50.31 indicates a neutral stance, with buying pressure matching selling pressure. An upward trend would align with the EMAs and support a breakout from $1,950.
Staking Statistics Turned Bullish to Support an ETH Return to $1,900
According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows decreased from 43,808 ETH on Tuesday to 33,504 on Wednesday. ETH staking inflows remained below the 100,000 ETH threshold.
The morning withdrawal profile was relatively bullish, with principal withdrawals at normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the afternoon are bearish. Projections show principal ETH withdrawals will spike before returning to normal withdrawal levels this afternoon.
On Wednesday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 37,630 ETH surplus (+101.25%) over 24 hours, equivalent to a positive balance of $73.46 million. Deposits totaled 43,860 versus withdrawals of 6,230 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 50,600 ETH, equivalent to approximately $97.254 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.64%, down 0.18% over 24 hours. The downward trend in the staking APR remains a drag for staking inflows and is ETH price negative.
Binance-Related News and the Fed Weigh on Investor Appetite
Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes weighed on investor appetite for riskier assets, including the crypto market.
Ahead of the US session, service sector PMIs from China and Europe and Binance-related news set a bearish tone.
On Wednesday, the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) reportedly searched the Binance offices. The latest regulatory probe follows increased scrutiny by regulators in Europe as governments and regulators respond to the SEC filing against Binance.US, Binance, and Binance CEO CZ.
The Day Ahead
It is a busy Thursday session, with US economic indicators likely to influence. US ADP nonfarm employment change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers will move the dial as investors fret over the Fed and the economic outlook.
However, crypto-ETF-related chatter and SEC v Ripple-linked news would also provide direction. With Binance and Coinbase in hot water with the SEC, investors should also consider SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news.
Blackrock Inc. (BKL) CEO Larry Fink delivered early crypto market support. Fink labeled BTC an international asset and called it digital gold.
